It's been nice to be home and do a lot of leaf collection last weekend. The fierce winds of late left most of the trees with bare branches, and confirmed (if there was any doubt) that yet another year is flying by!

After my downer on hospitality last week, it surprised me to see that private equity investment in Topgolf has made major headlines this week, with a defining transaction: ​Leonard Green & Partners, a major private equity firm, is acquiring a 60% majority stake​ in Topgolf.

I was on a fascinating session this week about the power of YouTube thumbnails and am experimenting with a few new approaches on our '​Transformed With Data​' channel. You bet there will be data tracking how the new Beast-style candidates perform!

Of course, Nvidia stole all the headlines this week - keep reading for a deeper dive on my take on lessons to be learned from the good results/bad outcomes combination!

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DEEP DIVE

Nvidia's upside-down results announcement

Nvidia just reported $57 billion in quarterly revenue - a 62% jump year-over-year -and its stock still crashed.

Here's the kicker: whispers are circulating about revenue recognition issues. Some customers are allegedly booking orders that circle back through Nvidia's investment arm. Others are claiming the compute capacity they haven't fully deployed. Classic "round-tripping" concerns that make even stellar numbers smell funny.

But even if every dollar was pristine (and Nvidia insists it is), the market still punished them. The Dow swung 1,100 points in a single day. One moment, euphoria. The next, panic.

This is a masterclass in how data perfection can become your worst enemy.

Here's what every CEO preparing for an exit needs to understand:

• Why "beating expectations" can actually destroy trust

• How forward-looking metrics become valuation landmines

• The hidden cost of being too successful with your numbers

Let's dig in.

The 3 Data Lessons From Nvidia's $57B "Disappointment"

When a company reports revenue that would make entire nations jealous, you'd expect champagne. Instead, we got a market meltdown.

Here's what actually happened, and what it means for your business.

Lesson #1: Revenue Recognition Is Your Achilles' Heel

The rumor mill suggests Nvidia's customers are booking massive orders funded by... Nvidia's own investment capital. Customer A gets Nvidia investment. Customer A orders Nvidia chips. Nvidia books revenue.

It's not illegal. It might not even be wrong. But it feels wrong to buyers.

Here's what this means for you: Every dollar of revenue in your financials will be scrutinized for quality. Buyers want to understand the physics of how money flows through your business.

The moment they spot circular dependencies, related-party transactions, or "pull-forward" revenue schemes, your multiple evaporates.

Action item: Audit your revenue recognition now. Look for:

• Customers who are also vendors or investors

• Revenue tied to future deliverables you haven't fully defined

• Any transaction where the cash path isn't crystal clear

Lesson #2: Perfect Data Creates Impossible Expectations

Nvidia's other problem was data that was too good.

When you consistently beat expectations by 10-20%, the market starts expecting 30%. When your forecasts are always conservative, buyers assume you're sandbagging. When every metric trends up and to the right, any wobble becomes a crisis.

This is the paradox of data excellence: The cleaner your story, the harder buyers look for the catch.

I've watched deals crater because the buyer couldn't believe the numbers were real. No company has zero customer churn. No sales team closes 90% of qualified leads. No product maintains massive margins forever.

Yet when scared CEOs polish their data to gleaming perfection, they create a story nobody believes.

The solution: Controlled transparency. Show the warts alongside the wins. When buyers see you acknowledging challenges, they trust the victories more.

Lesson #3: Forward-Looking Metrics Are Valuation Dynamite

Nvidia claims $500 billion in orders for 2025-2026. That's not revenue, it's a promise of revenue. And promises, as we've learned, can explode.

Every CEO wants to paint a picture of unlimited growth potential. It's tempting to share that massive pipeline, those signed LOIs, that enterprise client who's "definitely expanding next quarter."

But here's the trap: The moment you quantify future potential, you've created a scorecard you'll be judged against.

WeWork (last week's feature) claimed an addressable market of $3 trillion. They got valued on that promise, then crucified when reality hit. Your exit multiple is based on the buyer's confidence that you'll achieve your targets.

Better approach: Show capability, not commitments. Instead of "$100M in pipeline," show "infrastructure ready to handle 10x current volume." Instead of "50 enterprise deals in negotiation," show "sales cycle reduced by 60% with new process."

Let buyers draw their own conclusions about growth. Give them the tools to believe, not numbers to doubt.

FINAL SEND OFF

That's it.

Here's what you learned today:

• Revenue quality matters more than revenue quantity

• Perfect data creates impossible expectations.

• Forward-looking promises can become backward-looking litigation

Your data is about measuring your business AND about managing perception. And in today's market, perception is valuation.

Let us know if we can help you on the journey and thank you for reading!

Graeme Crawford

CEO at ​Crawford McMillan​

Helping PE firms protect and grow company valuations with clean, reliable data.